Military analysts predict that Russia will increase the tempo of its operations in a summer offensive to increase pressure on Ukraine, but note that Moscow could struggle to keep up the pace into 2026. Russia shows no intention of wrapping up the war any time soon.

Air assaults on Saturday killed at least four people. Kharkiv’s mayor described an overnight strike as “the most powerful attack” since the beginning of the war.

By Ukraine’s count, that would make this operation one of the most efficient, dollar for dollar, in the history of warfare. No doubt the operatives behind the strike deserve to take a bow. But once the Russian targets stop smoldering at their bases,